This story was featured by Euranet Plus
Debunking figures and myths about migrants in the EU
Recent surges of irregular migrant arrivals to particular areas of the European Union like Mediterranean countries, paired with misinformation and rhetoric from far-right politicians, suggest the bloc is being inundated — but a closer look at the data shows a more complex picture.
Why fact check Europe’s migration figures?
While people are undoubtedly moving to Europe, the figures and differentiation between their status — from refugees to skilled workers — vary as much as allegations around the issue from weak entry requirements to impact on crime rates.
It can also trumpet fears of foreigners taking over and changing the cultural landscape, particularly with an influx of Muslim migrants.
US President Donald Trump has even echoed such views, claiming Europe was “decaying” under the burden of migration and that London was on track to be governed by sharia law.
But data shows this is simply not the case and Muslims in particular remain a minority.
Why is this issue complex?
Firstly, an immigrant can represent a wide variety of different people in very different circumstances. While the EU broadly defines immigrants as anyone living in a country for a prolonged period which isn’t their country of origin, various European agencies and national governments also distinguish between EU and non-EU citizens.
What we see often in the news are stories about migrants taking treacherous journeys to enter the EU, by water or on foot. These irregular migrants are defined as people who do not fulfil the legal conditions of entry.
Some of them may be asylum seekers, which as the name suggests, are foreign nationals or stateless people seeking protection from persecution. If they’re granted that protection, they’re considered refugees.
Claim 1: The number of migrants to Europe is on the rise
This is both true and false, depending on which metric you look at.
The number of irregular migrants have not come close to the 2015 crisis peak of 1.8 million arrivals in the subsequent years, according to European Commission data.
Figures have consistently fallen since then, year over year, until 2021.
The number of irregular migrants to the EU began to climb again through 2023 with a peak of over 385,000 people – but that dropped again last year to 240,000 arrivals.
That increase coincides with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a new wave of asylum seekers to Europe. Over 4 million Ukrainians have since been granted temporary asylum as of December 2025.
Asylum seeker applications are also generally on the decline. The EU reported a 12 percent decrease in the number of asylum applications in 2024 compared to 2023.
The number of immigrants in total, however, has gone up.
There were nearly 6 million immigrants arriving in the EU-27 in 2023, according to Eurostat data. That was down from the peak of nearly 7 million arrivals in 2022, but also significantly more than the 4.2 million pre-pandemic arrivals for 2019.
Of the 449.3 million people living in the EU as of 2023, 6.4 percent (or 28.9 million) were non-EU citizens, according to the European Commission.
Claim 2: It has gotten too easy for foreigners to get into the EU.
If anything, it’s gotten harder. Asylum seekers entering the EU must contend with a fluctuating backlog of applications. At the end of 2024, over 1.2 million people were waiting on pending asylum applications, according to the European Commission.
Success rates for applications also vary dramatically between EU countries. For example, Afghan citizens had a success rate on their first asylum application of just 11 percent in Bulgaria but as high as 98 percent in Greece, the Commission said.
The border agency Frontex meanwhile assisted in returning over 56,000 individuals in 2024, marking a 43 percent increase from the previous year.
There are many options for people seeking to enter legally. Many countries offer skilled worker visas, but those are often focused on specific labour shortages in EU member states and are paired with conditions such as minimum income requirements or a written job offer, as well as criminal background checks.
Individual countries often change visa requirements, causing more red tape. In France, for example, foreigners seeking a residence permit in France will be required as of this month to take a 45-minute civic test on the country’s history, culture and individual rights and responsibilities – similar to the exam required for naturalisation.
Claim 3: Immigrants are driving up crime rates.
There is no concrete evidence to support the claim that immigration leads to more crime.
Foreigners nationals did account for one in five prisoners in the EU in 2023, according to Eurostat.
But the proportion varies dramatically between EU countries, according to the UNODC.
For example, foreign nationals outnumber Austrian citizens in the country’s prisons in 2023, accounting for more than half the prison population. The opposite was true in France, which had nearly 19,000 foreign nationals imprisoned compared to over 57,000 French citizens.
Yet in Germany, where immigrants constitute a high proportion of the population, a December crime report by the government stated that migrants accounted for just 9 percent of all suspects in 2024. The number of immigrants who themselves became victims of a crime in 2024 rose by 5.2 percent compared to the previous year.
Another explanation of higher criminality among immigrants are social and demographic factors, according to a French justice observatory. Being a young man are characteristics systematically associated with higher levels, as is economic insecurity. It also noted that judicial institutions tend to be more severe towards immigrants.
Research suggests that improved integration policies could help to reduce crime rates among migrants.
Additional deliverables: For this monthly fact check, I also research and produce a much longer in-depth report for Euranet journalists to supplement their reporting on the topic, as well produce a pre-recorded radio story of the public-facing article.